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What is Wolf Hiding?
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.
How to play Wolf Hiding
Relax Gaming has expanded its reach in the regulated gambling market in Denmark with the introduction of the Dream Drop product locally. The popular supplier and aggregator of award-winning content has signed a new partnership with FDJ UNITED.
The partnership extends the feature to Unibet and Maria Casino, which are part of the FDJ UNITED group. Relax Gaming Jackpot Business Owner Alastair Smith has welcomed the opportunity to collaborate with the group on this launch, adding:
“We’re delighted to announce the launch of Dream Drop in another regulated market. The Danish player profile is an excellent fit for the unique jackpot experience that Dream Drop offers, and early results have exceeded expectations.”
What is Wolf Hiding?
For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.
The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.
As Marantelli says: “Let’s call a spade a spade.”
